There was a great blog post by 37Signals (actually several through the years) on the fallacy of forecasts and I have been happy to add my own two-cents to that concept in previous posts. Just when we have convinced ourselves that our forecasts are based on the right assumptions and are the perfect blend of optimism and conservatism, then....reality happens and delivers numbers of her own.
If the business world put as much energy into early indication (actual data from real sources that would validate assumptions or establish trends) as we did into forecast exercises, I wonder if we'd immediately begin making better decisions? I suspect so.
